Trends in life expectancy of the population of the Siberian Federal district (2005-2016)

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Abstract

introduction. Life expectancy is the most important medico-demographic indicator, closely related to the social and economic conditions of the life of the population.

Material and methods. Statistical data for the work was obtained on websites of the Federal State Statistics Service and Siberian District Medical Center of the Federal Medical and Biological Agency of Russia. To analyze the changes in the life expectancy of the population in the Siberian Federal District (SFD) for 2005-2016 and the short-term prognosis, the Microsoft Office application (MS Excel) capabilities were used and several options for approximating the annual increase in life expectancy were considered using the following trends: linear, logarithmic, degree (polynomial of the third degree).

Results. The analysis of the trends indicates a “fading” nature of the gain in the life expectancy. In some SFD areas in 2014-2016, there is a slowdown in the rising life expectancy or even a decline in the index. This may indicate to a certain depletion of the resource of reducing the mortality rate with the exogenous determination (primarily from injuries and poisonings). The actual dynamics of life expectancy and mortality rates in SFD and its regions were compared with the target milestones for 2018. Their levels and trends in SFD are much worse than in the country as a whole. By the index of life expectancy, the difference between SFD and the target milestones in 2016 was 4.19 years, which is almost twice as much as in the Russian Federation. The lag will not be overcome, as for the last three years, the annual gain was only 0.39 years. This is slightly larger than in the Russian Federation, but obviously not enough to achieve the target milestones.

Conclusion. The data given show the problem of reducing the mortality rate and increasing life expectancy can be solved only if the value of health on the scale of both public and personal assessment changes at the wide distribution of practice of healthy lifestyles.

About the authors

Yury A. Grigoryev

Research Institute for Complex Problems of Hygiene and Occupational Diseases

Author for correspondence.
Email: grig.yu@gmail.com
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6841-6809

MD, Ph.D.,DSci., chief researcher, the head of the Laboratory for medical demography, Research Institute for Complex Problems of Hygiene and Occupational Diseases, Novokuznetsk, 654041, Russian Federation.

e-mail: grig.yu@gmail.com

Russian Federation

O. I. Baran

Research Institute for Complex Problems of Hygiene and Occupational Diseases

Email: noemail@neicon.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1312-2368
Russian Federation

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