Particulate air pollution in Tashkent and consequences to population health

Introduction. Air pollution, and particularly high concentrations of PM_2.5 can have severe consequences to human health. Particulate air pollution raises the risks for various diseases, including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, ischemic heart disease, stroke, lung cancer, and diabetes type 2. For all of Uzbekistan, over 2021 the expected value of mortality attributable to Ambient PM_2.5 pollution was 27,099. This is a significant cause of the mortality in the country. Top five sources contributing to outdoor PM_2.5 concentration were: residential, industry, energy, anthropogenic dust, and agriculture.

Materials and methods. To estimate PM_2.5 attributable mortality in Tashkent, we downloaded the available PM_2.5 from the air quality monitor at the US Embassy in Tashkent, and the satellite-based PM_2.5 concentration data for the city of Tashkent from the Atmospheric Composition Analysis Group at the Washington University in St. Louis. Population data for Tashkent city was taken from the official statistics agency of Uzbekistan. We then applied a PM_2.5 attributable mortality model.

Results. For the years 2019 to 2022 we estimate a range of mortality in the city from a low of 3095 to a high of 4736; using the same attributable mortality model but the different sources of PM_2.5 concentrations.

Limitations. The monitor at the US Embassy may not represent average particulate matter concentrations across the entire city. satellite data do not directly measure PM_2.5 concentrations and in general rely on ground monitors for verification. Tashkent is growing very quickly and the official estimates of the city’s population may be on the low side.

Conclusion. Air quality in Tashkent is a serious health issue and a source of annual mortality. Tashkent needs a detailed emission inventory and source apportionment to support a high quality and feasible air quality management plan and to address the high costs of air pollution.

Compliance with ethical standards. The study does not require the submission of the conclusion of the biomedical ethics committee or other documents.

Contribution:
Brody M.S. – overall idea and design of the study, main author of the text;
Saidov D.N. – collection of particulate concentration data and data processing;
Ilesaliev D.I. – collection of literature and population data;
Razikov R.S. – provision of facilities and approval.
All authors are responsible for the integrity of all parts of the manuscript and approval of the manuscript final version.

Conflict of interest. The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Acknowledgment. The United States Fulbright Specialist Program provided a grant to Dr. Brody that funded his time at the Tashkent State Transport University. Tashkent State Transport University hosted Dr. Brody and provided housing and its facilities available for this work. Dr. Vladimir Potashnikov assisted with modeling of attributable mortality.

Received: October 5, 2024 / Accepted: November 2, 2024 / Published: January 31, 2025