Mathematical modeling of the development of chronic fluorine intoxication in aluminium industry workers

Introduction. Chronic fluorine intoxication prevails among the newly discovered occupational diseases in aluminum industry workers. Mathematical modeling is one of the helpful tools in ensuring better risk management with respect to the development of occupational fluorosis.

Objective. Developing a logistic regression model predicting a probability of occupational fluorosis development in an occupational staff of aluminum plants in order to suggest adequate prophylactic strategies.

Material and methods. A logistic regression model predicting a probability of the development of occupational fluorosis in aluminum industry workers of the Sverdlovsk region was constructed. The model embraced the results of a univariate analysis conducted with respect to major occupational exposures and health characteristics of 201 workers.

Results. Six major factors were identified as being predictive of occupational fluorosis development in aluminum industry workers: age (fluorosis risk increases with age); type 2 diabetes mellitus; atrophic gastritis; kidney cysts; X-ray examination data (fluorosis risk increases with the stage as determined by X-ray); the hydro fluoride concentration increases by more than 2 occupational exposure limits. The developed model was verified by clinical cases and showed a high predictive ability (86.2 %). Both sensitivity (true positive rate) and specificity (true negative rate) of the model amounted to 86.2 %.

Conclusion. By multivariate analysis the significant, mutually independent factors were identified, their combination being associated with chronic fluorine intoxication in an occupational staff of aluminum plants. The developed mathematical model has a high predictive ability and can be recommended as a sure tool to forecast the course of occupational fluorosis development in the workers at the aluminum industry.